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Warmer waters in the Pacific signal the
return of El Niņo.
"In the 2002 to 2003 El Niņo, Kentucky will
likely be sandwiched between storms tracking to the north and storms
tracking to the south."
Tom Priddy,
UK Agricultural Meteorologist
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by Aimee D. Heald
LEXINGTON, Ky. (Sept. 17, 2002) - Throughout the
summer, warmer waters have been churning in the Pacific signaling the return of
the weather phenomenon known as El Niņo. But what do warm waters thousands of
miles away mean for Kentucky weather?
University of Kentucky Agricultural Meteorologists Tom Priddy and Corey Pieper
said Kentucky and the Ohio Valley could see a mild and dry fall and winter even
though sea surface temperatures are only up 1 degree Celsius along the equator
as of Sept. 16. They said studying the last El Niņo episode in 1997 and 1998
provides a good guide of what to expect this time around.
"It is important to point out that global impacts of this warm episode
should generally be weaker than those we observed in 1997 and 1998," Priddy
said. "Although there is uncertainty about the timing and intensity of the
peak of this episode, all forecasts indicate a weaker version. However, strong
impacts are still possible."
Typically, El Niņo has many predictable effects on United States weather
patterns. From September through November, fewer hurricanes and tropical storms
form in the Gulf of Mexico, Carribean Sea and more occur in the eastern Pacific.
Pieper said El Niņo does not seem to affect the number of storms in the main
Atlantic Basin.
"Also, from December to April, El Niņo moves the preferred patterns of
storms to produce variations in precipitation and surface temperatures in many
regions," he said. "That means the storm track position changes."
During the last El Niņo, Kentucky saw January temperatures in the 60s, February
temperatures in the 70s and then 80s in March.
"In the 2002 to 2003 El Niņo, Kentucky will likely be sandwiched between
storms tracking to the north and storms tracking to the south," Priddy
said. "This is mostly because the main branch of the polar jet stream will
stay well to the north of Kentucky and the Ohio Valley and the southern branch
will track well to the south of Kentucky into the Mid-Atlantic states."
Priddy said it's important to remember that even small shifts in the jet steam
can have a large impact on a region's weather, which is why no two El Niņo
episodes are exactly alike.
"The fall and winter months of 1997/1998 were generally dry," he said.
"But it was a roller coaster with November having well below normal
temperatures and January through March being unseasonably warm at times."
Priddy and Pieper expect precipitation to be below normal and temperatures above
normal for fall and winter 2002/2003 in Kentucky and the Ohio Valley states.
"The main point I'm trying to get across is that El Niņo will affect
Kentucky similar to what we experienced during the last episode," Priddy
said. "It's just too soon to tell how great the impact will be."
To keep track of El Niņo and other weather matters, visit the UK Ag Weather
Center online at http://wwwagwx.ca.uky.edu
Writer: Aimee D. Heald 859-257-4736, ext. 267
Source: Tom Priddy 859-257-8803,
ext. 245
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