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Winter Wheat Planting Under Way Amid Strong Economic Prospects
By
Laura Skillman
PRINCETON, Ky., (Oct. 18, 2006) – As Kentucky farmers plant
their winter wheat, many may be remembering the record yields of
the previous crop as well as its continued strong economic
prospects.
In Kentucky, the 2006 wheat crop totaled an estimated 22.7
million bushels, the largest crop in five years. The statewide
yield average of 71 bushels per acre set a record, according to
the National Agricultural Statistics Service, Kentucky Field
Office.
Kentucky’s yields have seen dramatic increases in the past two
decades and that can be attributed in part to teamwork, said
Lloyd Murdock, University of Kentucky College of Agriculture
Extension specialist for plant and soil sciences.
The first step was taken when a Kentucky agribusiness developed
a scouting and applied research program. With that emphasis,
yields began to increase. Next came UK’s concentrated emphasis
on the crop with development of its multidisciplinary Wheat
Science Group, Murdock said. Soon afterward, UK specialists,
agribusiness consultants and the Kentucky Small Grain Growers’
Association started working as a team on many research and
educational efforts.
“Kentucky now has excellent research and education programs on
wheat with well informed and productive producers,” Murdock
said. “Wheat yields have reached the 70 bushels per acre range
and Kentucky leads the nation in the percentage of acres planted
through no-till production methods.”
Improved yields across Kentucky may be a factor in how many
acres will be planted in winter wheat in the coming weeks. But
the biggest factor is strong prices for the commodity, he said.
The prospects for good pricing for the crop are based on a much
smaller world crop than experienced the past two years and very
strong demand, said Steve Riggins, UK Extension grain marketing
specialist. Several major wheat exporting nations have
experienced production problems during the past several months,
and Australia and Argentina are concerned about lack of moisture
for their wheat crops.
This sharply reduced production, coupled with stable domestic
demand and growing global wheat use, has resulted in a
significant draw-down in global and U.S. projected ending stocks
(the amount on hand), Riggins said.
Stocks in the United States by next summer are projected to be
reduced to well below 450 million bushels – the smallest since
the mid-1990s when wheat prices exceeded $5 per bushel. Global
wheat stocks are projected to decline to only 126 million metric
tons by next summer. Stocks this summer were listed at 146
million metric tons, and last year global wheat carryover stocks
were recorded as 151.5 million metric tons.
These factors will help support good wheat prices until it
becomes apparent that global wheat production is rising in
response to strong prices, Riggins said.
U.S farmers are expected to increase acres seeded to winter
wheat this fall. The U.S. Department of Agriculture will issue
its acreage planting projections in early January 2007. Kentucky
wheat planting intentions are not available, but Murdock said he
expects acreage to grow substantially from the 310,000 acres
harvested this year.
“I don’t think it will reach the 500,000 acres we once grew, but
I wouldn’t be surprised to see it reach halfway between the
two,” he said. |
Contact: Lloyd Murdock, 270-365-7541, ext. 207
Steve Riggins, 859-257-7256 |
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The UK College
of Agriculture, through its land-grant mission, reaches across
the commonwealth with teaching, research and extension
to enhance the lives of Kentuckians. |
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