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Unique Fall Setting up
Interesting 2008 Crop Scenario
By
Aimee Nielson
LEXINGTON, Ky., (Oct. 10, 2007) – There’s not an area of
Kentucky agriculture that the 2007 drought has not touched.
University of Kentucky Extension Livestock and Forage Economist
Kenny Burdine said the variance of the drought’s effects on
grain production from county to county is great and averages
don’t tell the whole story.
“The difference in production levels across the state this year
is mind boggling,” he said. “Even within individual counties, we
are seeing wide differences in yields. Some areas that were
blessed with timely rains are seeing pretty good yields, but
there are also a lot of areas where state average yields would
sound great.”
The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s October crop production
report lowered Kentucky’s estimated soybean yield by two more
bushels, bringing it down to 28 bushels per acre – more than a
35 percent decrease from 2006. If the report is correct,
Kentucky’s 2007 soybean production would be down 50 percent from
last year by combining lower yields and fewer harvested acres,
Burdine said.
“It’s true that Kentucky corn and soybean producers are enjoying
stronger prices this year, but their yields have not been
anywhere near last year’s levels,” he said. “Also, let’s not
forget the losses many of them saw on their wheat crop this past
spring due to the late Easter freeze.”
The USDA increased Kentucky’s average corn yield estimate from
September to 124 bushels per acre. Actually, despite lower yield
expectations than last year, Burdine said Kentucky corn
production should be up by about 10 percent.
“This is of course due to massive increases in corn acreage in
response to price signals sent earlier in the year,” he said.
“Most of this increase in corn acreage came directly from
soybeans, which explains the difference in the two projections.”
Burdine added that across the United States, soybean prices have
strengthened since the middle of August, more so than corn
during that same time period. He said that while many factors
are at play, the major one has been that the soybean balance
sheet for the upcoming marketing year looks tighter than the
corn balance sheet.
“The bean market will probably try to buy back some acreage in
2008,” Burdine said. “At the same time, the wheat market is
trying to buy some acres as well, because wheat supplies are
also very tight. All this has made for a very unique fall and it
appears to be setting up a very interesting 2008 as well.” |
Contact: Kenny Burdine, 859-257-7273
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of Agriculture, through its land-grant mission, reaches across
the commonwealth with teaching, research and extension
to enhance the lives of Kentuckians. |
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